Looking at a metaversal bear market

A brief history of QE

You can see from the two charts below that the NASDAQ Composite has corrected roughly -20% each time QE ended in 2010 and 2011, or tightening from 2017–2018 caused markets to have their first Xmas crash on record. The exception was the COVID-19 crash when it lost about one-third of its value. When major averages have deep corrections, the Federal Reserve steps in and reverses their position, thus QE in some form in unleashed. This means QE either restarts, or tightening ends, or a variant of QE begins.

Crypto versus zero or slowing QE

2014 and 2018 were the two big bear markets in crypto. This was due to tapering in 2014 and tightening in 2018. In consequence, the US dollar had strong uptrends. Should the uptrend in the dollar continue due to an expected four rate hikes for 2022, crypto is likely to continue its downtrend, should other key factors remain the same.

Talking heads

I’ve been critical of most of the stock and crypto talking heads with massive followings on YouTube, FOX, and CNBC when it comes to cryptocurrencies and stocks. Yes, both Gil and I used to be regulars but we realised the cost/benefit did not compute. Trading time, research, and publishing is more precious. That said, there are a few crypto YouTubers that deserve their huge followings because they bring material value to the investment space.

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